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Claude Opus 5: Polymarket bet 88% on a July 23 launch that hasn’t shipped

Claude Opus 5 is Anthropic’s next flagship LLM — a reasoning model you’d hit through the Anthropic API, not an app. Prediction markets got so confident about a July 23 debut that Polymarket odds briefly touched the high 80s. It’s July 24, and the model still isn’t live. Classic hype-cycle whiplash.

What the leak actually shows

Back on July 9, a developer caught “Claude Honeycomb EAP” flashing inside Cursor next to Opus 4.8, tagged as a 1M-token research model with an “xhigh” effort mode. It vanished within hours. Honeycomb is the internal codename. The pitch: sharper code and long-document reasoning, roughly Fable 5-tier quality at a lower price — a production workhorse, not a benchmark king.

The API angle and why it matters

Same drill as every Claude model: swap the model ID in your API call. The headline is the 1M-token context — feed it an entire repo or a stack of contracts in one shot. Pricing is unconfirmed. The real story is the three-way race: GPT-5.6 and Moonshot’s Kimi K3 (half GPT’s token cost) are squeezing Anthropic on both quality and economics. Opus 5 is Anthropic’s answer — if it ever actually ships.


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